Strava’s AI Will Now Predict Your Race Occasions (however I am Skeptical)

Strava, the famous person working/biking app, now has a subscriber-only AI function that may predict how briskly it thinks you might run a 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon. The predictions use a distinct technique from these you would possibly see from different sources, although. 

For me, Strava’s predictions look much less correct than those I get from Garmin and Runna, however the function is just too new to say for certain how correct they are going to be for everyone else.

Find out how to view your race predictions in Strava

Race predictions are solely obtainable to Strava premium members. That membership runs $11.99/month or $79.99/12 months and in addition will get you mapping instruments and further analytics, like objectives and health scores. 

If you happen to’re a premium member, you could find your predictions within the cell app by going to the You tab (backside proper once you’re trying on the dwelling display), then tapping Progress on the prime of the display. Proper beneath your weekly mileage, you’ll see your race time predictions. The function is at the moment solely obtainable on cell, not within the internet app. 

To have sufficient knowledge for a prediction, you should have logged no less than 20 run actions within the final 24 weeks, Strava says. The predictions will replace after every run, and after three days with out working. Along with telling you how briskly it thinks you may run proper now, Strava’s AI will even let you know how this compares to your predicted time from 30 days in the past. The predictions assume that your race can be on flat floor in good climate. 

How Strava’s predictions evaluate to different apps and formulation

You’ll have seen race predictions earlier than—for instance, in your Garmin watch or on web sites like vdoto2.com. These normally use a mathematical components, whereas Strava’s new predictions are powered by “Athlete Intelligence,” which the corporate describes as a machine studying (ML) mannequin.

Right here’s what Strava says concerning the function: 

“Strava’s Efficiency Prediction function is powered by an ML mannequin that leverages over 100 athlete knowledge attributes, together with all-time run historical past and prime performances. In contrast to different race predictors that depend on theoretical inputs like estimated VO2 max, Strava solely makes use of actual exercise knowledge to foretell race outcomes. The system additionally leverages the performances of athletes with comparable coaching histories, so estimated occasions are practical and primarily based on what has been achieved by different customers with comparable capabilities.”

In different phrases, the app is doing a little AI magic: taking a look at everyone else’s coaching and race occasions, contemplating yours, and guessing the way you would possibly measure as much as the mixture. I requested whether or not Strava had completed any testing to see how nicely the information compares to real-life race outcomes, however up to now haven’t obtained a solution. (I’ll replace if I hear again.) 

Actually the anticipated outcomes I am getting are fairly totally different from what I’m seeing elsewhere. I’ve been logging all my runs with Garmin and Strava for a number of months now, and right here’s how their race time predictions evaluate: 

• 5K (3.1 miles): Strava says I can run this race in 29:22 (up 21 seconds within the final 30 days); Garmin says 26:02 (down 50 seconds prior to now 4 weeks)

• 10K (6.2 miles): Strava predicts 1:01:50 (up 5 seconds); Garmin says 55:31 (down about 90 seconds)

• Half marathon (13.1 miles): Strava says 2:24:57 (up 2:43); Garmin says 2:07:09 (down about three minutes) 

• Marathon (26.2 miles): Strava says 5:04:04 (up 1:50); Garmin says 4:45:58 (down 7:44)

I’m not shocked that they differ, but it surely’s unusual that Strava thinks I’m getting slower, the place Garmin thinks I’m getting sooner.

I don’t have any tremendous latest race occasions to match these to, however final fall I ran a 5K in 26:04. The morning of the race, Garmin predicted I’d run it in 25:50, so the Garmin was solely 14 seconds too optimistic. In accordance with that very same Garmin algorithm, I’m near that very same health degree proper now, so I’d guess cash that if I ran a 5K this weekend, I’d be within the low 26 minute vary. 

I’m at the moment working by way of a 5K plan with the Runna app, and it predicts a 26:15 end time at my present health. (For the opposite distances: 55:50, 2:08:22, 4:45:33). On a gut-check foundation, this one sounds probably the most right to me, no less than for the 5K. 

I do not belief Strava’s predictions

Strava’s prediction of 29:22 sounds means too sluggish to me. In truth, in accordance with knowledge I can search for in my Strava account, this previous weekend I ran 5 kilometers in 30:03 (only a smidge slower than its 5K race prediction) throughout a five-mile run. That wasn’t a race, and I used to be clearly pacing myself for a five-mile effort fairly than a three-mile one. 

Based mostly on my 5K time of 26:04 (once more, an older time, but it surely’s in all probability near my true health degree), the easy calculator at vdoto2.com thinks I might do a 10K in 54:10, a half in 2:00:23, and a full marathon in 4:07:43. Calculators are usually just a little too optimistic, particularly in the event you put in a shorter race time and ask it to extrapolate out to lengthy distances. So I wouldn’t count on to run a 4:07 marathon anytime quickly. 

Judging from boards just like the r/Strava subreddit, the jury remains to be out on accuracy. Right here’s someone who ran a 10K in 56:34, however the app predicts 57:58—a quantity they simply beat by nearly a minute and a half. However, a number of runners in this thread say that their Strava predictions appear fairly correct. Solely working a race will let you know for certain.